My Thoughts on the New Tax Proposal

I'm not a big fan of the bipartison tax reform bill that the Oregonian discussed this morning.

A bipartisan plan to remake Oregon's tax system -- add a 5 cent sales tax, cut income taxes by one-third, add tax credits for the poor, slash the tax on capital gains -- was formally put before the Legislature on Wednesday.

If enacted, it would represent the biggest change in state tax policy since 1929, when Oregon began a state income tax.

But the odds are steep: The plan would have to be approved by two-thirds of the House and Senate, and it would have to overcome the deep aversion of Oregon voters and politicians to a sales tax.

I guess I'm one of those with a deep aversion to a sales tax. Sales taxes are regressive, and the sponsors of the bill realized that. They were wise to attempt to balance it out for poor Oregonians by making income taxes for those very people lower.

Taxpayers in every income range could expect to pay less in taxes, except some taxpayers who earn too little to owe income taxes. For most Oregonians, sales tax payments would be more than offset by reductions in income and property taxes, Westlund says.

But Westlund acknowledges that some people will slip through the cracks in this bill paying more in sales taxes but not having enough income to get an income tax cut to balance it out. So the poorest Oregonians end up paying a disproportionate high percentage of their income to the sales tax. Aside from that practical argument, I think sales taxes are also a pain, in Oregon now when you see a price on something you know thats the price, something reassuring, when there's a sales tax you dont really know what you're paying in the end unless you're a math wizz. There is something that can be done to this bill that I believe would make it acceptable. Washington probably has the right model here, Washington has a sales tax but it exempts food, so that the basic necessities that everyone must have and cause the sales tax to burn the poor are not taxed. If the legislature wants to enact a sales tax they should exempt food so that the poorest Oregonians dont get burned as they would without such an exemption.

The Problem with National Popular Vote

The electoral college is broken, States like Wyoming that have a tiny population still get three electoral votes giving them far more electoral power than they deserve based on their population. Blue Oregon pointed out that we nearly had two consecutive elections in which the winner of the popular vote lost the electoral vote. In response a group called National Popular Vote has begun a campaign to convince States to agree to send their electors to the winner of the popular vote, bypassing the Constitutional Amendment process that would be needed to get rid of the electoral college. They seem to have convinced an Oregon legislator to introduce a bill sending Oregon's electoral votes to the nationwide winner.

This is a bad idea, because it means that Oregonians get less of a voice than anyone else in the Presidential election. By agreeing to send our electors to vote for whoever won the National popular vote, Oregon's concerns will be tossed aside for the concerns of voters in all the other States. If a candidate wants to win Oregon's electoral votes, that candidate needs to be able to convince Oregonians that he's the best candidate, and that he shares Oregon's values and concerns. His policies need to reflect the policies that Oregonians want enacted. By doing this, Oregon would in essence be agreeing to throw away the votes that are cast be Oregonians.

I don't believe that the electoral college is a good idea, but in order to chance it we can't go looking for the easy way out as this does, it undermines the voting rights of the resident's of the State who get nothing in return. If its going to be changed it must be done by Constitutional Amendment. Personally I favor removing Senators from the equation to calculate electoral votes, which would mean that while some States might still be overrepresented, their overrepresentation would be minimized. If only Representatives comprised the electoral votes then Gore would have recieved 227 electoral votes (assuming I counted right) and Bush would have won 213 electoral votes. Al Gore would be the President if Senators (which every State has two of) were not included in the formula for determining electoral votes. Bush gained 19 electoral votes over Gore by winning smaller States than Gore did. This is the hard way, because it requires a Constitutional Amendment, but it is also the right way because unlike the plan being offered for Oregon it doesnt take away one State's voting rights. There are other plans that would be reasonable as well, but any of those plans would also require a Constitutional amendment.

Oregon Takes a Lead on Health Care

While California gets most of the press for Health Care reform, Oregon seems to be moving forward with plans to dramatically restructure the State's health care system. And unlike in California it has a chance of passing in Oregon (California has some screwed up laws on budgetary matters allowing a minority to easily block the legislation). The debate is beginning in Oregon, and not just on the topic of whether universal health care is the best policy (it is), but rather about exactly what plan is best to do that, good serious proposals are being made and sent into committee in the Oregon Legislature, there seems to be a growing consensus that something needs to be done and that the health care system as it is today is unsustainable. Former Governor John Kitzhaber is leading this charge with the Archimedes movement.

Former Gov. John Kitzhaber rolled out a bold legislative plan for overhauling Oregon's health care system Wednesday, hoping to leverage a national debate on health care reform that will spread to the 2008 presidential race.

"The health care system today is unsustainable," he said. "It is remarkable we are utterly unable to change our direction."

The plan would pool roughly $7 billion from employer tax deductions for health care and from state and federal tax money spent on Medicare and Medicaid in Oregon. The pool then would be spent in a more efficient and rational system that would provide a "core benefit" of essential health services to every Oregonian, including the 609,000 who now have no health insurance, said Kitzhaber, a former emergency-room doctor, during a news conference in downtown Portland.
...
Kitzhaber's bill will go to the Senate Special Committee on Health Reform, said the Democratic co-chairs, Sen. Alan Bates of Ashland, and Sen. Ben Westlund of Bend. The committee will consider Kitzhaber's plan along with at least three other health reform plans: one developed by a Senate commission led by Bates and Westlund and others from the Oregon Business Council and the Oregon Health Policy Commission.

"What is most significant and shows the true depth of this (health care) crisis is the number of groups that have come together to propose solutions," Westlund said.
...
No plan will work if it does not contain costs, Kitzhaber said.

Like other plans before the Legislature, his would seek administrative efficiencies, include incentives to keep costs low and the quality of service high, and would guarantee Oregonians health care no matter where they work.

Its a shame Kitzhaber appears to have no plans to challenge Gordon Smith for the Senate seat in 2 years, but it does little good to dwell on that. What Kitzhaber recognizes that Ron Wyden doesnt is the section I put in bold from the Oregonian article. Wyden seems to think that we cant effectively control the costs but we can ensure access to health care for all. This concedes ground in the debate that doesnt need to be conceded, one of the most compelling reasons for health care reform is the runaway cost of care in the current system. Massachussetts, Vermont, and Hawaii have all drastically reformed their health care systems, if California and Oregon do it too then perhaps the US Congress will begin to really take this issue seriously and do something about a broken system. The Oregonian piece also mentioned that Kulongoski is backing a bill to guarantee coverage for all children, and if we're going to take baby steps toward this thing that's certainly admirable, but it fails to deal with the larger health care crisis in the State and the country choosing instead of focus on select social groups while ignoring the larger problems. If a universal plan cannot get through the legislature than Kulongoski's plan to cover all children would be nice, but if we can make health care in this State more efficient and change its fundamental structure we should.

Panel Recomends Civil Unions

An Oregon task force on equality appointed by Gov Kulongoski has recomended that the legislature adopt civil unions for gay and lesbian couples much like what Vermont did while Howard Dean was Governor, and New Jersey did a week ago.

I thought (as much as I hated the measure) that this might violate the constitution as amended by Measure 36 in 2004. However, I went back and read the text and there appears to be a loophole for civil unions.

It is the policy of Oregon, and its political subdivisions, that only a marriage between one man and one woman shall be valid or legally recognized as a marriage.

By specifying "as a marriage" there is a narrow door opened for civil unions. In a Democratic legislature I expect this will at least get a chance on the floor. I dont know if the votes exist to pass it, but at least this will get an opportunity to be debated. This would be a great positive step towards gender equality in Oregon. Kulongoski deserves a lot of praise for his willingness to move forward on this. Other States that have done this have been forced to by the courts, Vermont, New Jersey, and even Massachussetts with their more sweeping reform. Kulongoski is acting out of sheer political will and desire for equality, this goes above and beyond what other States have done if we can pass it, because other States have been forced to action by the courts.

Nelson's Fishy Filings

Donna Nelson (R-HD24) has been accused of withholding campaign contributions from July until October in her reelection bid against Democrat Sal Peralta this year. There is good analysis on this over at Loaded Orygun and at Ridenbaugh Press. Nelson claims that she just didnt open the mail until October.

She said any problems might stem from the fact she focuses on constituent mail first. She said "nonessential" mail, including lobbyist mailings that could include campaign checks, sits in plastic tubs until she gets to it - quite possibly months later.

I find it hard to believe that it took her 4 months to open the mail, and as is being argued over at Loaded Orygun, if it actually did take her that long it merely proves that she's a dunce. Nelson built her entire campaign on the theme that "I'm one of y'all, I love you and I love this town." And she seems to be falling back on that same narrative in the face of possibly criminal activity. I'm embarrassed to be represented by this woman, we deserve someone competent in Salem even if it were someone who I had strong political differences with, nobody deserves a completely incompetent Representative. It doesnt matter whether this was deliberate or accidental, it proves either that she maliciously broke the law, or that she's so clueless that she didnt think to bother opening her mail.

Bi-ennial Sessions On the Way Out

I've never understood why the Oregon legislature meets bi-ennially, but its good to see some growing support for meeting annually instead. The only real justification I can think of for meeting bi-ennially is that back in the day it might have been difficult for legislators from southern or eastern Oregon to get to Salem, so a bi-ennial session would have made sense to cut down on the amount of travelling. But with modern transportation I see no justification for it anymore.

Senate President Peter Courtney says he senses growing support among lawmakers for giving annual legislative sessions a test drive beginning in January - an idea he believes would help bring the Legislature into the 21st century.

The Salem Democrat said House and Senate members of both parties are open to a session limited to 120 days in 2007, followed by a 60-day session in 2008.

"I'm encouraged by the reception I'm getting," Courtney said at a news conference Thursday.

In a tradition that dates to Oregon statehood, the Legislature has met every other year, instead of annually, as in 44 other states.

Of course some people just dont want the legislature to work for Oregonians, with an attitude like this I dont see why allowing the legislature to meet at all would be acceptable.

Not everyone is pleased about the prospect of Oregon lawmakers coming into session every year.

"If this happens, taxpayers will have to be in a state of red alert every year, instead of every other year," said Jason Williams, executive director of the Taxpayers Association of Oregon. "Every year they will be threatened with more taxes and more regulations."

In any event, I hope this change is adopted, its silly to meet bi-ennially.

UPDATEIn the original version of this post I consistently said "bi-annual", and a commenter pointed out that what I really meant was "bi-ennial" so I have deleted every instance of "bi-annual" and replaced it with "bi-ennial" provided I didnt miss any, which is always a possibility.