Monday, November 06, 2006

2006 Election Predictions

Here are my predictions for tomorrow, US Senate, US House, Oregon Governor, and Oregon House and Senate.

US Senate:
-Democrats pick up 4 with little doubt, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Montana. Missouri and Virginia go to McCaskill and Webb respectively by tiny margins that take the whole night to finish counting. Lieberman will defeat Lamont, Cardin and Mendendez hang on in Maryland and New Jersey. The Senate will be comprised of 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans.

US House:
-Democrats pick up 34 seats and lose one. The new House of Representatives will be 201 Republicans to 234 Democrats. Democrats lose one seat in the Georgia 12th as Conservative Democrat John Barrow is unseated. Democrats pick up seats in the following districts:
NH-01, NY-24,NY-20, CT-05, CT-04, PA-06, PA-07, PA-08, PA-10, OH-01, OH-15, OH-18, VA-02, NC-11, FL-16, IN-02, IN-08, IN-09, KY-03, IL-06, IA-01, MN-06, TX-22, CO-04, CO-05, CO-07, NM-01, AZ-05, AZ-08, ID-01, WA-05, WA-08

Surprise wins of the night in the CO-05, WA-05, and ID-01.

In Oregon Governor Kulongoski will be reelected by a 5-7% margin as Oregon Democrats take a sigh of relief. Democrats sieze a bare majority in the State House of Representatives 31 Democrats to 29 Republicans, upset of the night, Sal Peralta unseats Donna Nelson. Democrats retain their majority in the Senate.


Abe said...

Gallup and Rasmussen had Ford within 3-4, which is in the margin of error. I think he pull if off and if he does i be dancing in the streets. He may be a centrist but I don't care.

Jefferson said...

My prediction is that the Dems will pick up Cowan, Brading, Clem, and Chris Edwards' seat as well as at least one of the following 7 in order of likelihood: D. Edwards, VanOrman, Peralta, Gilbert, Caudle, Backa, or Gilbertson.

Net predictions:

Kulongoski by +5%
32-28 Dems in Oregon House.
+1 for the Dems in Oregon Senate
Dems miss control of the U.S. Senate 51-49 or get a 50-50 tie.
Dems win the House 219-216

Cwech said...

jefferson-why do you think the Dems lose seats in the OR Senate?

salperalta said...

I think that the Dems will gain a seat in the Oregon Senate (Paul Evans).