Wednesday, November 08, 2006

Exit Poll Number Crunch

Some observations from the exit polls via CNN. I'll probably post this again into some conclusion, right now I just want to get some of the data I found interesting out there. These are based on the House information because House of Representatives was the one office that everyone who voted would have had on the ballot. These are in no particular order, just the order that I noticed them when I looked through the exit polling.

1) The media talking point has been that this election was all about Iraq-however, those who said that Iraq was "not at all important" to their vote went more strongly Democratic than any other response. Admittedly only 10% of the electorate said Iraq was unimportant, but Democrats were very strong amongst those whom Iraq had no effect on.

2) Evangelical voters, who had been rumored to be unlikely to turn out comprised 34% of the electorate. Up 1% from their 2004 electoral share, so evangelical voters were no different than the rest of the electorate in terms of sitting this one out.

3) Voters in 2006 self identified as 2% less conservative, 1% less liberal and 3% more moderate than in 2004.

4) The more important terrorism was the more likely voters were to vote Republican.

5) There was no substantive difference between voters who said that local issues were more important and those who said national issues were more important.

6) Those who disaproved of GOP handling of the page scandal went heavily Democratic, though not very much more than those who dissaproved of Congress in general.

7) Voters with a union member in their household voted 5% more strongly for Democrats than they did in 2004 and comprised a nearly identical share of the electorate.

8) Just as in 2004 there is a clear level by level correlation between income and vote. The wealthier you are the more likely you are to vote Republican, this holds at every income level.

9) Those who attent church weekly voted far less Republican in 2006 than in 2004.

10) A plurality of 2006 voters voted for Bush in 2004. Democrats won the votes of 15% of them

11) Those who said the economy was "extremely important" to their vote voted strongly Democratic, those who said the economy was "not important at all" comprised almost no share of the electorate but voted Democratic.

12) The more important corruption was, the more likely a voter was to vote for a Democrat.

13) Those to whom the Saddam Hussein verdict was "extremely important" were won by a small margin by Republicans and were a surprisingly large portion of the electorate at 18%.

14) The less you approved of the war in Iraq the more likely you were to vote Democratic.

15) Those who wanted troop withdrawels from Iraq voted heavily Democratic, those who did not voted heavily Republican.

16) 59% of the electorate said the war in Iraq did not make the United States safer and that 77% of them voted Democratic.

17) Most of the electorate thought that "most illegal immigrants should be offered legal status" and voted strongly Democratic.

18) Any gains made by Republicans amongst hispanics in 2004 were lost in 2006 as hispanics voted heavily Democratic. However, hispanics represent 14% of the US population and only comprised 8% of the electorate.

19) Democrats won amongst big city voters, small city voters, suburban voters, and small town voters. Republicans only won rural voters who comprise 18% of the population.

20) Democrats lost in the South and won everywhere else.

21) Nearly 90% of voters voted the same way in their Senate race as in their House race if there was a Senate race.

No comments: