Friday, July 15, 2005

Bush Administration: The Roller Coaster Week

New AP-Ipsos poll out today. Bush's poll numbers in this poll have reached a new low, showing 42% approval and 56% dissaprove. This is a slight drop from the previous poll conducted by Ipsos.

On Tuesday I wrote that Bush had a 5% bump in Pew and a 3% bump in Gallup. Both of these polls were conducted on July 7-10. On the other hand AP and the new FOX News poll both have Bush slightly down from their previous polls. These two were conducted on July 11-13.

I wrote on Tuesday that Bush's bump was created by the heightened "culture of fear" created by the London bombings. I stand by that statement. Bush is down in FOX and AP because they reflect a different social dynamic. Up until July 11 the White House Press Corps had not even asked McClellen a single question relating to the Rove scandal. Up until that point most of the mainstream coverage of the case focused arround the jailing of Judith Miller of the NYT and the press outcry that they must be able to keep anonymous sources secret (a stupid claim). Thus while Gallup and Pew reflected an increased level of fear in the American public, AP and FOX reflected the growing public sentiment that this Administration is corrupt. The newer polls reflect public distrust of the Administration caused by the likelihood that Rove was the leaker while the older ones reflected a fearful public.

It has been the week of the roller coaster at the WH, they were up after the London bombings, and just as quickly down from RoveGate. At the moment it appears the two forces have nuetralized each other so that Bush's numbers are sitting steady arround where they were before either event happened. If either had happened independently without the other I suspect we would be seeing either a 4-7% jump for the Administration or a 5+% fall for them.

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